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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out Union Berlin 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hamburger SV beat Union Berlin 3-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.40 xG and Union Berlin 1.01 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.87 / defence 0.87 against Union Berlin attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 20/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 44% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 25%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 67%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hamburger SV's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Union Berlin's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.50 PPG, Union Berlin 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights