Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees FC Augsburg travel to Volksparkstadion to take on Hamburger SV. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hamburger SV's home record at Volksparkstadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hamburger SV 1.60 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hamburger SV have won 0, FC Augsburg 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 60% and FC Augsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 58% | FC Augsburg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.84 xG and FC Augsburg 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.772 / defence 1.078 | FC Augsburg attack 1.295 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 2.023 / away 1.400. Hamburger SV's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Augsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Hamburger SV games / 40 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 37% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 42%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.70 | Draw 4.76 | FC Augsburg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 70% | FC Augsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 37% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Hamburger SV 1.84 / FC Augsburg 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.772 / def 1.078 | FC Augsburg attack 1.295 / def 1.178 | league avg home 2.023 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.95
FC Augsburg xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Volksparkstadion.
Where is Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg part of?
Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 37% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 42% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg?
Record (2 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (0.77) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
37%
2.70
21%
4.70
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.79
1.95
FC Augsburg xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
14%
7.05
16%
6.29
Win to Nil
5%
19.00
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.95 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hamburger SV come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 11D 17L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.27 PPG from 40 outings (14W 9D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.18 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hamburger SV's home form reads 8W 6D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (6W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.52 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 12W 11D 17L in their last 40 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or FC Augsburg away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg?
From 2 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 0, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hamburger SV 1-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hamburger SV at 65%, FC Augsburg at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Hamburger SV and 75% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Hamburger SV's games and 70% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Hamburger SV's matches and 75% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.