Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees SC Freiburg travel to Signal Iduna Park to take on Borussia Dortmund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Signal Iduna Park, Borussia Dortmund have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Borussia Dortmund are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Borussia Dortmund hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 8 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 1 for SC Freiburg, with 1 draws in between.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 4–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
SC Freiburg trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 48% versus SC Freiburg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 55% | SC Freiburg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.05 xG and SC Freiburg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.087 / defence 0.858 | SC Freiburg attack 0.953 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.992 / away 1.401. Data: 40 Borussia Dortmund games / 40 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 58% | Draw 21% | SC Freiburg 21%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | SC Freiburg 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Borussia Dortmund 40% | SC Freiburg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 58% | Draw 21% | SC Freiburg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.05 / SC Freiburg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.087 / def 0.858 | SC Freiburg attack 0.953 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.992 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SC Freiburg xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Signal Iduna Park.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 58% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Record (10 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 8W | Draws 1 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.09x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
58%
1.72
21%
4.75
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.19
1.15
SC Freiburg xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
13%
7.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
3%
37.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.15 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 26W 9D 5L from 40 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 14L across 40 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Freiburg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 15W 3D 2L from 20 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 5W 4D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SC Freiburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.65 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg in 62%.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
SC Freiburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 26W 9D 5L in their last 40 games (2.17 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 17W 9D 14L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.40 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 40%, SC Freiburg 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Borussia Dortmund and 60% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 45% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 60% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.