🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

FC Augsburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 13 January 2027 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Augsburg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.

Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Borussia Mönchengladbach haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Augsburg 1.20 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: FC Augsburg have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed just 3 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 3–1 with FC Augsburg winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Augsburg and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 62% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 62% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.79 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.963 / defence 1.010 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.859 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.822 / away 1.468. Data: 34 FC Augsburg games / 34 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 49% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.70. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights