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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 25, as FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.73 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.42 / defence 1.03, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 33% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 43%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 52%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.29 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights