🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FSV Mainz 05.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat FSV Mainz 05 1-3 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.73 xG and Union Berlin 1.07 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Union Berlin attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 53% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 23%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 53%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Union Berlin's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.35 PPG, Union Berlin 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights