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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Sun 10 May 2026

18:30

Venue

Mewa Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FSV Mainz 05 Win

53%

FSV Mainz 05

1.89

24%

Draw

4.21

23%

Union Berlin

4.29

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.2%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.5%

Home win

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.73

FSV Mainz 05 xG

Total xG

2.80

1.07

Union Berlin xG

53%
24%
23%
FSV Mainz 05DrawUnion Berlin

1.89

53%

Home win

4.21

24%

Draw

4.29

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.85

46%

BTTS No

2.17

Clean Sheet

34%

FSV Mainz 05

2.91

18%

Union Berlin

5.66

Win to Nil

18%

FSV Mainz 05

5.49

4%

Union Berlin

24.27

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.1 6.5 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 10.5 11.2 6.0 2.1 0.6 0.1
2 9.1 9.7 5.2 1.8 0.5 0.1
3 5.3 5.6 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 2.3 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1
5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.733
λ Away (xG) 1.067
Total xG 2.800
League avg home goals 1.726
League avg away goals 1.477
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.909
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 0.973
Union Berlin attack strength 0.743
Union Berlin defence strength 1.104
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 66