FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg Prediction & Preview
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FSV Mainz 05 face SV Elversberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mewa Arena plays host to FSV Mainz 05 versus SV Elversberg in Bundesliga (matchday 25). Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
SV Elversberg's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SV Elversberg away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.60 for SV Elversberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 10 away games) — FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, SV Elversberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 1 for SV Elversberg and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2026, ended FSV Mainz 05 1–4 SV Elversberg — a SV Elversberg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 63% and SV Elversberg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 58% | SV Elversberg 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FSV Mainz 05 surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while SV Elversberg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.90 xG and SV Elversberg 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.886 / defence 1.385 | SV Elversberg attack 0.768 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.358. SV Elversberg's attack rating of 0.768 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.45. FSV Mainz 05's defence rating of 1.385 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Elversberg's projected output up. Data: built from FSV Mainz 05's last 43 games and SV Elversberg's last 9.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 48% | Draw 22% | SV Elversberg 29%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.07 | Draw 4.49 | SV Elversberg 3.40. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FSV Mainz 05 80% (last 10 home games) | SV Elversberg 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 48% | Draw 22% | SV Elversberg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.90 / SV Elversberg 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.886 / def 1.385 | SV Elversberg attack 0.768 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.45
SV Elversberg xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg FAQs
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Mewa Arena.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 48% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and SV Elversberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.89) and SV Elversberg's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (0.77x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from FSV Mainz 05's last 43 games and SV Elversberg's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
48%
2.07
22%
4.49
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.34
1.45
SV Elversberg xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
4%
22.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.45 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 13W 11D 19L from 43 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
SV Elversberg, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 12L across 43 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Elversberg by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 4W 6D 12L from their last 22 home games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Elversberg's away record stands at 8W 5D 9L across their last 22 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Elversberg's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.88 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
FSV Mainz 05 (Home) vs SV Elversberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg Form FAQs
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 0.82 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 1 H2H match between FSV Mainz 05 and SV Elversberg, the earliest from October 2026. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 1 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
0
Draws
1
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SV Elversberg?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, SV Elversberg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and SV Elversberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: SV Elversberg 4-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 64%, SV Elversberg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FSV Mainz 05) and 54% (SV Elversberg).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 32% of games; SV Elversberg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FSV Mainz 05 and SV Elversberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 59% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FSV Mainz 05 and SV Elversberg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 54% of SV Elversberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and SV Elversberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 73% of SV Elversberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
Related fixtures
More Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 25
All Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →