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Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat FSV Mainz 05 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat FSV Mainz 05 0-1 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.67 xG and SC Freiburg 1.02 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.88 / defence 0.86 against SC Freiburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.10, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 53% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 23%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 53%, SC Freiburg 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.37 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights