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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29

Kick-off

Sun 12 Apr 2026

18:30

Venue

Mewa Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FSV Mainz 05 Win

53%

FSV Mainz 05

1.90

24%

Draw

4.11

23%

SC Freiburg

4.34

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.6%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.4%

Home win

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.67

FSV Mainz 05 xG

Total xG

2.69

1.02

SC Freiburg xG

53%
24%
23%
FSV Mainz 05DrawSC Freiburg

1.90

53%

Home win

4.11

24%

Draw

4.34

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

50%

Over 2.5

2.00

50%

Under 2.5

2.00

28%

Over 3.5

3.57

72%

Under 3.5

1.39

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.07

Clean Sheet

36%

FSV Mainz 05

2.76

19%

SC Freiburg

5.31

Win to Nil

19%

FSV Mainz 05

5.25

4%

SC Freiburg

23.05

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.8 6.9 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 11.4 11.6 5.9 2.0 0.5 0.1
2 9.5 9.7 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.1
3 5.3 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.2
4 2.2 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.669
λ Away (xG) 1.016
Total xG 2.685
League avg home goals 1.713
League avg away goals 1.451
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.882
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 0.865
SC Freiburg attack strength 0.810
SC Freiburg defence strength 1.104
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 62