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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 28, as FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 2.26 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.04 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.01 / defence 0.77 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.95 / defence 1.46, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 65% | Draw 19% | Holstein Kiel 16%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 48%, Holstein Kiel 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.31 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights