FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 host Holstein Kiel at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MEWA ARENA, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MEWA ARENA.
Holstein Kiel — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, FSV Mainz 05 have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, Holstein Kiel 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 56% versus Holstein Kiel 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 48% | Holstein Kiel 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 2.26 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.013 / defence 0.772 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.952 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.422. Holstein Kiel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.462 — this is suppressing FSV Mainz 05's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FSV Mainz 05's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 FSV Mainz 05 games / 27 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 65% | Draw 19% | Holstein Kiel 16%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Holstein Kiel 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 40% | Holstein Kiel 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 65% | Draw 19% | Holstein Kiel 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 58% | xG FSV Mainz 05 2.26 / Holstein Kiel 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.013 / def 0.772 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.952 / def 1.462 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Holstein Kiel xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 65% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel?
Record (1 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 1W | Draws 0 | Holstein Kiel 0W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FSV Mainz 05's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
65%
1.55
19%
5.19
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.30
1.04
Holstein Kiel xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
10%
9.58
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
2%
59.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.04 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 20D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.39 PPG from 61 outings (25W 10D 26L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.31 PPG, Holstein Kiel on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 12W 9D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.50 points per game from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.69 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 20W 20D 21L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 25W 10D 26L in their last 61 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Holstein Kiel away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.50 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FSV Mainz 05
1
Draws
0
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel?
From 2 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, Holstein Kiel have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 47%, Holstein Kiel 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FSV Mainz 05) and 67% (Holstein Kiel).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Holstein Kiel in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 63% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 67% of Holstein Kiel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 28, as FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 2.26 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.04 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.01 / defence 0.77 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.95 / defence 1.46, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 65% | Draw 19% | Holstein Kiel 16%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 48%, Holstein Kiel 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.31 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.