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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Sat 5 Apr 2025

14:30

Venue

MEWA ARENA

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FSV Mainz 05 Win

65%

FSV Mainz 05

1.55

19%

Draw

5.19

16%

Holstein Kiel

6.20

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

9.4%

Home win

1 – 1

8.7%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.26

FSV Mainz 05 xG

Total xG

3.30

1.04

Holstein Kiel xG

65%
19%
16%
FSV Mainz 05DrawHolstein Kiel

1.55

65%

Home win

5.19

19%

Draw

6.20

16%

Away win

Goals Markets

84%

Over 1.5

1.19

16%

Under 1.5

6.25

64%

Over 2.5

1.56

36%

Under 2.5

2.78

42%

Over 3.5

2.38

58%

Under 3.5

1.72

24%

Over 4.5

4.17

76%

Under 4.5

1.32

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.72

42%

BTTS No

2.39

Clean Sheet

35%

FSV Mainz 05

2.84

10%

Holstein Kiel

9.58

Win to Nil

23%

FSV Mainz 05

4.40

2%

Holstein Kiel

59.45

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.7 3.8 2.0 0.7 0.2
1 8.3 8.7 4.5 1.6 0.4 0.1
2 9.4 9.8 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.1
3 7.1 7.4 3.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 4.0 4.2 2.2 0.8 0.2
5 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.260
λ Away (xG) 1.045
Total xG 3.305
League avg home goals 1.527
League avg away goals 1.422
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 1.013
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 0.772
Holstein Kiel attack strength 0.952
Holstein Kiel defence strength 1.462
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 61 / 27