FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg meet at Mewa Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05 at Mewa Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.80 for FC Augsburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FSV Mainz 05 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Augsburg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Historically, FSV Mainz 05 have had the better of this match-up — 7 wins from 10 meetings, with FC Augsburg managing just 2 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FSV Mainz 05 and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 60% and FC Augsburg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 55% | FC Augsburg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.41 xG and FC Augsburg 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.698 / defence 1.095 | FC Augsburg attack 1.216 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 2.006 / away 1.401. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Augsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 FSV Mainz 05 games / 38 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 29% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 48%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | FC Augsburg 2.08. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
FSV Mainz 05 dominate the H2H record, yet FC Augsburg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 70% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 29% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.41 / FC Augsburg 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.698 / def 1.095 | FC Augsburg attack 1.216 / def 1.005 | league avg home 2.006 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.86
FC Augsburg xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Mewa Arena.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 29% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
Record (10 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 7W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 2W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.70) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.22x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
29%
3.51
24%
4.21
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.27
1.86
FC Augsburg xG
3.51
29%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
16%
6.45
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
4%
22.61
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.86 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 16L across 38 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.32 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 4W 6D 9L from 19 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 6W 2D 11L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.47 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or FC Augsburg away?
FC Augsburg's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 0.95 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FSV Mainz 05 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FSV Mainz 05
1
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 7, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 58%, FC Augsburg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FSV Mainz 05) and 74% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 37% of games; FC Augsburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 68% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 74% of FC Augsburg's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.