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Stalemate at FSV Mainz 05's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg finished level at 0-0 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.76 xG and FC Augsburg 0.95 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.94 / defence 0.74 against FC Augsburg attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 56% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 20%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 46%, FC Augsburg 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.22 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights