🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Form

FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FSV Mainz 05 at MEWA ARENA this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

FC Augsburg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.40 for FC Augsburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Historically, FSV Mainz 05 have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with FC Augsburg managing just 2 victories and 0 draws shared.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 3–2 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FSV Mainz 05 and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 56% versus FC Augsburg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 46% | FC Augsburg 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.76 xG and FC Augsburg 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.939 / defence 0.740 | FC Augsburg attack 0.913 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.400. FSV Mainz 05's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 FSV Mainz 05 games / 54 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 56% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 20%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | FC Augsburg 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: FSV Mainz 05 50% | FC Augsburg 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights