SC Freiburg 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim make the trip to Europa-Park Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 6W 2D 2L at Europa-Park Stadion — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in SC Freiburg's favour (1.30 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: SC Freiburg 1W, 1. FC Heidenheim 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 59% and 1. FC Heidenheim 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 67% | 1. FC Heidenheim 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.47 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.099 / defence 1.032 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.074 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.400. 1. FC Heidenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 SC Freiburg games / 54 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 19% | 1. FC Heidenheim 23%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.72 | Draw 5.26 | 1. FC Heidenheim 4.35. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.47 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | 1. FC Heidenheim 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 19% | 1. FC Heidenheim 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 72% | xG SC Freiburg 2.47 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.099 / def 1.032 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.074 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.55
1. FC Heidenheim xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SC Freiburg 1 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 58% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 23% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (3 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.10x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (1.07x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
58%
1.73
19%
5.26
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
4.03
1.55
1. FC Heidenheim xG
1.73
58%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.61
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
8%
11.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
2%
51.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.55 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 20W 12D 22L from 54 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 26L across 54 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.04 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 11W 8D 7L from 26 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 5W 8D 13L across 26 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.39 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 20W 12D 22L in their last 54 games (1.33 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 14W 14D 26L in their last 54 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.58 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-3 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 3, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for SC Freiburg, 69% for 1. FC Heidenheim — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for SC Freiburg and 54% for 1. FC Heidenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SC Freiburg's games and 69% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of SC Freiburg's matches and 54% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.47 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.55 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.07 / defence 1.27, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 19% | 1. FC Heidenheim 23%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 67%, 1. FC Heidenheim 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.33 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.