FC St. Pauli 1-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Augsburg make the trip to Millerntor-Stadion to face FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC St. Pauli (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli at Millerntor-Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with FC Augsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 49% versus FC Augsburg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 49% | FC Augsburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.25 xG and FC Augsburg 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.652 / defence 0.871 | FC Augsburg attack 0.906 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.817 / away 1.405. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 FC St. Pauli games / 53 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 39% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 33%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | FC Augsburg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 20% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 39% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.25 / FC Augsburg 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.652 / def 0.871 | FC Augsburg attack 0.906 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.817 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC Augsburg xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 39% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 0.65x the league average against FC Augsburg's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.91x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.59
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.35
1.11
FC Augsburg xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.11 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 53 games, going 26W 11D 16L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.21 PPG from 53 outings (17W 13D 23L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 13W 7D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.88 points per game from 26 outings (6W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.38 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 26W 11D 16L in their last 53 games (1.68 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 17W 13D 23L in their last 53 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or FC Augsburg away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.77 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.88 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 1, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-1 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 42%, FC Augsburg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC St. Pauli) and 65% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 38% of games; FC Augsburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 58% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 65% of FC Augsburg's.
Do FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, as FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.25 xG and FC Augsburg 1.11 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.65 / defence 0.87 against FC Augsburg attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 39% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 33%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 49%, FC Augsburg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.