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Prediction vindicated as FSV Mainz 05 edge out Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.71 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.39 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.12 / defence 1.16, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 45% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 31%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 52%, Eintracht Frankfurt 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.32 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights