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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 11, as FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.21 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 2.08 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.32 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 22% | Draw 21% | 1899 Hoffenheim 57%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 50%, 1899 Hoffenheim 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.30 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights