FSV Mainz 05 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 host 1899 Hoffenheim at Mewa Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 0W 6D 4L at Mewa Arena — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour 1899 Hoffenheim — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of FSV Mainz 05: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for 1899 Hoffenheim, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
The historical record gives FSV Mainz 05 a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 54% and 1899 Hoffenheim 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 50% | 1899 Hoffenheim 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.21 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.794 / defence 1.086 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.317 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.457. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. 1899 Hoffenheim have an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — the away xG of 2.08 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 FSV Mainz 05 games / 44 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 22% | Draw 21% | 1899 Hoffenheim 57%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1.75. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
FSV Mainz 05 dominate the H2H record, yet 1899 Hoffenheim are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 70% | 1899 Hoffenheim 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 22% | Draw 21% | 1899 Hoffenheim 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.21 / 1899 Hoffenheim 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.794 / def 1.086 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.317 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
2.08
1899 Hoffenheim xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Mewa Arena.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 22% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (8 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 5W | Draws 1 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.79) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
22%
4.63
21%
4.78
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.29
2.08
1899 Hoffenheim xG
4.63
22%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
12%
8.04
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
3%
37.21
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.08 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 12D 17L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1899 Hoffenheim sit at 1.16 PPG from 44 outings (13W 12D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.30 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 6W 9D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.52 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 70%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 15W 12D 17L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
1899 Hoffenheim's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.23 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FSV Mainz 05
2
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 6, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 54%, 1899 Hoffenheim 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (FSV Mainz 05) and 64% (1899 Hoffenheim).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 64% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 11, as FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.21 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 2.08 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.32 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 22% | Draw 21% | 1899 Hoffenheim 57%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 50%, 1899 Hoffenheim 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.30 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.