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VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC St. Pauli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Wolfsburg beat FC St. Pauli 1-3 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.39 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.66 / defence 1.08 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.22, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 41%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 42%, VfL Wolfsburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 0.87 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights