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Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC St. Pauli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat FC St. Pauli 0-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.21 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.09 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.60 / defence 0.92 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.88 / defence 1.21, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 37% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 31%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Borussia Dortmund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 46%, Borussia Dortmund 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.58 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights