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1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim beat Union Berlin 3-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.57 xG and Union Berlin 1.57 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.92 / defence 1.45 against Union Berlin attack 0.74 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 38% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 38%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 63%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Union Berlin's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights