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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Holstein Kiel.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim beat Holstein Kiel 3-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.29 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.86 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Holstein Kiel landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.62 / defence 1.30 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.02 / defence 1.36, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 26% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 50%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, Holstein Kiel 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights