1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Heidenheim face Holstein Kiel.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host Holstein Kiel at Voith-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 16 March 2025 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
1. FC Heidenheim's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Holstein Kiel stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Holstein Kiel have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Heidenheim 0.60 PPG, Holstein Kiel 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, Holstein Kiel 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 0–1 Holstein Kiel — a Holstein Kiel win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 61% and Holstein Kiel 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 54% | Holstein Kiel 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.29 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.621 / defence 1.297 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.017 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.406. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating of 0.621 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Holstein Kiel's defence rating of 1.365 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output up. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating of 1.297 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Holstein Kiel's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 59 games and Holstein Kiel's last 25.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 26% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 50%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 3.86 | Draw 4.11 | Holstein Kiel 2.01. Holstein Kiel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.29 / 1.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and Holstein Kiel's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 30% (last 10 home games) | Holstein Kiel 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 26% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.29 / Holstein Kiel 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.621 / def 1.297 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.017 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Holstein Kiel xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 26% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 59 games and Holstein Kiel's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
26%
3.86
24%
4.11
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.15
1.86
Holstein Kiel xG
3.86
26%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
16%
6.40
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
4%
24.71
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.86 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 14W 16D 29L from 59 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 24L across 59 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Holstein Kiel by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 9W 6D 14L from their last 29 home games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Holstein Kiel's away record stands at 13W 6D 10L across their last 29 away games, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.73 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Holstein Kiel in 61%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs Holstein Kiel (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 14W 16D 29L in their last 59 games (0.98 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 25W 10D 24L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.14 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. They cover more than one competition — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
1. FC Heidenheim have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Apr 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 1. FC Heidenheim 3-0 Holstein Kiel.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
2
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, Holstein Kiel have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 55%, Holstein Kiel 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 66% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel in 38%; 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 62% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 66% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 83% of Holstein Kiel's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat Holstein Kiel 3-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.29 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.86 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Holstein Kiel landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.62 / defence 1.30 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.02 / defence 1.36, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 26% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 50%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, Holstein Kiel 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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