1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 45%, yet in-form FC St. Pauli provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga (matchday 31). Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
1. FC Heidenheim's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
FC St. Pauli arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 away games) — 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC St. Pauli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have the stronger record — 5 wins to 1. FC Heidenheim's 1, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 1–2 FC St. Pauli — a FC St. Pauli win.
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 53% versus FC St. Pauli 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 64% | FC St. Pauli 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.72 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.002 / defence 1.391 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.697 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.464. FC St. Pauli's attack rating of 0.697 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.42. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating of 1.391 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC St. Pauli's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 64 games and FC St. Pauli's last 64.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 45% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 32%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.24 | Draw 4.27 | FC St. Pauli 3.13. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.72 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC St. Pauli (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% (last 10 home games) | FC St. Pauli 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 31 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 45% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.72 / FC St. Pauli 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.002 / def 1.391 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.697 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.42
FC St. Pauli xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
1. FC Heidenheim 2 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 31) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 45% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 1.00x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.70x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 64 games and FC St. Pauli's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
45%
2.24
23%
4.27
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.14
1.42
FC St. Pauli xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
6%
17.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.42 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 11W 13D 40L from 64 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 34L across 64 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.72 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 0.91 for FC St. Pauli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 5W 8D 19L from their last 32 home games — 0.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 7W 6D 19L across their last 32 away games, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.84 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs FC St. Pauli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 11W 13D 40L in their last 64 games (0.72 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 14W 16D 34L in their last 64 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (0.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 0.72 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
5
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 50%, FC St. Pauli 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 41% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 47% of games; FC St. Pauli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 44% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent games and 41% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 81% of FC St. Pauli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat FC St. Pauli 2-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.72 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.42 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.00 / defence 1.39 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.70 / defence 1.01, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 45% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 32%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 64%, FC St. Pauli 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 0.72 PPG, FC St. Pauli 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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