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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 27, as 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.25 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.28 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.83 / defence 1.52 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 20% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 62%, Bayer Leverkusen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights