FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg meet at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form

FC Augsburg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SC Freiburg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.60 for SC Freiburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Freiburg, who have claimed 6 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 60% and SC Freiburg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 63% | SC Freiburg 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.08 xG and SC Freiburg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.023 / defence 0.900 | SC Freiburg attack 0.951 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 FC Augsburg games / 35 SC Freiburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 58% | Draw 23% | SC Freiburg 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | SC Freiburg 5.26. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | SC Freiburg 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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