Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 meet at Borussia-Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record at Borussia-Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borussia-Park. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Borussia-Park than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 42% versus SC Paderborn 07 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 56% | SC Paderborn 07 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.84 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.033 / defence 1.210 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.687 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.981 / away 1.344. Data: 36 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 2 SC Paderborn 07 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 22%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | SC Paderborn 07 4.55. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | SC Paderborn 07 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.84 / SC Paderborn 07 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.033 / def 1.210 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.687 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.981 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.12
SC Paderborn 07 xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Borussia-Park.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 53% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.69x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
53%
1.87
24%
4.08
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.96
1.12
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
3%
28.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.12 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 36 games, going 9W 11D 16L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.75 PPG from 36 outings (18W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 6W 6D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.67 points per game from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.61 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 61%.
Defensively: Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 9W 11D 16L in their last 36 games (1.06 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 9L in their last 36 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.33 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 39%, SC Paderborn 07 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 44% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 50%; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 33% of games; SC Paderborn 07 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 44% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 44% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.