RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 76% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Leipzig — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. RB Leipzig have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — RB Leipzig are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — RB Leipzig at 1.50 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
RB Leipzig hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 0 for FC Augsburg, with 4 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with RB Leipzig winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RB Leipzig and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Leipzig 58% and FC Augsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (RB Leipzig 72% | FC Augsburg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 3.04 xG and FC Augsburg 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.496 / defence 0.639 | FC Augsburg attack 1.214 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.999 / away 1.425. RB Leipzig carry an above-average attack strength of 1.496 — their λ of 3.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Augsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. RB Leipzig's defence rating of 0.639 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 RB Leipzig games / 39 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 76% | Draw 13% | FC Augsburg 11%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.32 | Draw 7.69 | FC Augsburg 9.09. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (76%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.15. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.15 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (3.04 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 76% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 50% | FC Augsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 76% | Draw 13% | FC Augsburg 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 64% | xG RB Leipzig 3.04 / FC Augsburg 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.496 / def 0.639 | FC Augsburg attack 1.214 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.999 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.04
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC Augsburg xG
64%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
Where is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 76% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 11% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
Record (10 meetings): RB Leipzig 6W | Draws 4 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.04. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 3-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
76%
1.32
13%
7.43
11%
9.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
3 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.04
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
4.15
1.11
FC Augsburg xG
1.32
76%
Home win
7.43
13%
Draw
9.50
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
5%
20.88
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
1%
198.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 3.04 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.11 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 4.15.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Leipzig come into this having played 40 games, going 23W 5D 12L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for RB Leipzig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.27 PPG from 40 outings (14W 9D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
RB Leipzig's home form reads 15W 2D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — RB Leipzig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (6W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.52 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 65%.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 23W 5D 12L in their last 40 games (1.85 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or FC Augsburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.35 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
4
Draws
0
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 55%, FC Augsburg 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for RB Leipzig and 75% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of RB Leipzig's games and 70% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of RB Leipzig's matches and 75% of FC Augsburg's.
Do RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.