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Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.66 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Heidenheim 29%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, 1. FC Heidenheim 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Augsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights