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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.

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Match Analysis

FC Augsburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Augsburg 1.50 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for FC Augsburg, 3 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2026, ended 0–4 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 54% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.45 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.859 / defence 1.038 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.731 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.485. Data: 66 FC Augsburg games / 66 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% BTTS from recent games.

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