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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.45 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.13 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.73 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 29%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.26 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights