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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg encounter.

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Match Analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt host FC Augsburg at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 5W 4D 1L at Deutsche Bank Park — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC Augsburg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Augsburg's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, Eintracht Frankfurt have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, FC Augsburg 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

FC Augsburg trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 67% and FC Augsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 61% | FC Augsburg 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 3.09 xG and FC Augsburg 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.407 / defence 0.913 | FC Augsburg attack 0.711 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.465. Eintracht Frankfurt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.407 — their λ of 3.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 46 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 78% | Draw 15% | FC Augsburg 7%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | FC Augsburg 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (3.09 / 0.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 4.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.

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