FC Augsburg 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Augsburg lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 66% and Bayer Leverkusen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 66% | Bayer Leverkusen 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.30 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.908 / defence 0.866 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.207 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.481. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 FC Augsburg games / 47 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 30% | Draw 30% | Bayer Leverkusen 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 30% | Draw 30% | Bayer Leverkusen 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Augsburg 1.30 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.908 / def 0.866 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.207 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.481 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Bayer Leverkusen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FC Augsburg 0 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 30% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (5 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 3W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.91x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.21x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
30%
3.39
30%
3.33
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.85
1.55
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
6%
15.91
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.55 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 14W 13D 20L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 35W 11D 1L from 47 games, 2.47 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 1.30 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — FC Augsburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 17W 6D 0L from 23 away games — 2.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.53 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 64%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 13D 20L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 35W 11D 1L in their last 47 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.61 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.48 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for FC Augsburg, 65% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for FC Augsburg and 65% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Augsburg's games and 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of FC Augsburg's matches and 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat FC Augsburg 0-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.30 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.55 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.91 / defence 0.87 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 30% | Draw 30% | Bayer Leverkusen 40%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 66%, Bayer Leverkusen 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.