Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees FSV Mainz 05 travel to Borussia-Park to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Borussia-Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borussia-Park. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Borussia-Park than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05 away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.90 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 3 for FSV Mainz 05 and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% versus FSV Mainz 05 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 57% | FSV Mainz 05 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.52 xG and FSV Mainz 05 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.029 / defence 1.161 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.326 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 2.005 / away 1.461. FSV Mainz 05's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FSV Mainz 05 have an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 37 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 25% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 53%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | FSV Mainz 05 1.89. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | FSV Mainz 05 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 25% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.52 / FSV Mainz 05 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.029 / def 1.161 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.326 / def 0.735 | league avg home 2.005 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
2.25
FSV Mainz 05 xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 - 4 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 25% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (9 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W | Draws 5 | FSV Mainz 05 3W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 1.03x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
25%
4.05
22%
4.54
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.77
2.25
FSV Mainz 05 xG
4.05
25%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
11%
9.50
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
3%
38.45
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.25 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 11D 17L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 1.19 PPG from 37 outings (11W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.03 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 6W 6D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 1.44 points per game from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.35 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 9W 11D 17L in their last 37 games (1.03 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
FSV Mainz 05's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.33 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or FSV Mainz 05 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
5
Draws
4
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, FSV Mainz 05 have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 39%, FSV Mainz 05 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 67% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play FSV Mainz 05?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 61% of FSV Mainz 05's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 67% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FSV Mainz 05 edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.52 xG and FSV Mainz 05 2.25 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 2.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.03 / defence 1.16 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.33 / defence 0.73, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 25% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 53%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 57%, FSV Mainz 05 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.03 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.