Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 37%, yet in-form FSV Mainz 05 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FSV Mainz 05 travel to Borussia-Park to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05 — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FSV Mainz 05 away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FSV Mainz 05 are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 3 for FSV Mainz 05 and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2025, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 FSV Mainz 05 — a Borussia Mönchengladbach win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% versus FSV Mainz 05 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59% | FSV Mainz 05 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.41 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.893 / defence 0.982 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.980 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.467. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 63 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 63.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 37% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 37%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.67 | Draw 3.97 | FSV Mainz 05 2.67. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 25%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Borussia Mönchengladbach 37% and FSV Mainz 05 37%, with the draw at 25%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and FSV Mainz 05's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% (last 10 home games) | FSV Mainz 05 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 30 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 37% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.41 / FSV Mainz 05 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.893 / def 0.982 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.980 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.41
FSV Mainz 05 xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 FAQs
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 30) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 37% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 0.89x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 63 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
37%
2.67
25%
3.97
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.82
1.41
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.41 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 63 games, going 20W 15D 28L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 1.35 PPG from 63 outings (22W 19D 22L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.19 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 11W 8D 12L across their last 31 home games, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 6D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.43 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach (Home) vs FSV Mainz 05 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 15D 28L in their last 63 games (1.19 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 22W 19D 22L in their last 63 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
FSV Mainz 05's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.32 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Feb 2023, when FSV Mainz 05 won FSV Mainz 05 4-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
5
Draws
4
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, FSV Mainz 05 have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 48%, FSV Mainz 05 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 71% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 29% of games; FSV Mainz 05 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 58% of FSV Mainz 05's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 71% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 87% of FSV Mainz 05's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 30, as Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.41 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.41 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 37% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 37%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 37%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%, FSV Mainz 05 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.19 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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