Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Borussia Mönchengladbach (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Borussia Mönchengladbach face 1. FC Heidenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach host 1. FC Heidenheim at Borussia-Park in Bundesliga (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Borussia Mönchengladbach: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for 1. FC Heidenheim, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–0 1. FC Heidenheim — a Borussia Mönchengladbach win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Borussia Mönchengladbach and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59% | 1. FC Heidenheim 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.866 / defence 0.927 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.684 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.393. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 61 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 61.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 55% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.83 | Draw 3.99 | 1. FC Heidenheim 4.92. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 30% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Heidenheim 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 28 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 55% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 / 1. FC Heidenheim 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.866 / def 0.927 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.684 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
0.88
1. FC Heidenheim xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim FAQs
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 28) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 55% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 61 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
55%
1.83
25%
3.99
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.50
0.88
1. FC Heidenheim xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
4%
24.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.88 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 20W 14D 27L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 10W 12D 39L from 61 games, 0.69 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Heidenheim.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 30 home games (11W 7D 12L).
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 6W 4D 20L from their last 30 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.02 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach (Home) vs 1. FC Heidenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 14D 27L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 12D 39L in their last 61 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.33 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Mar 2025, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1. FC Heidenheim 0-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2
Draws
0
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 47%, 1. FC Heidenheim 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 57% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 30% of games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 53% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 57% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 80% of 1. FC Heidenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim finished level at 2-2 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.88 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.68 / defence 1.10, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 55% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%, 1. FC Heidenheim 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 28
All Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →