🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out Hamburger SV 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat Hamburger SV 3-2 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.14 xG and Hamburger SV 0.85 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hamburger SV outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.32 / defence 0.83 against Hamburger SV attack 0.76 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 67% | Draw 19% | Hamburger SV 14%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 65%, Hamburger SV 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights