🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Bayern München at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Signal Iduna Park plays host to Borussia Dortmund versus Bayern München in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Borussia Dortmund have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Signal Iduna Park, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park.

Bayern München's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bayern München away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.40 for Borussia Dortmund, 2.30 for Bayern München — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Bayern München hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Bayern München winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Borussia Dortmund half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Bayern München half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 65%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 61% versus Bayern München 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 65% | Bayern München 86%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.58 xG and Bayern München 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.340 / defence 0.821 | Bayern München attack 1.774 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.368. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bayern München's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.774 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Borussia Dortmund games / 57 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 31% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 47%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Bayern München 2.13. Bayern München hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayern München if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 40% | Bayern München 50%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights