Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Borussia Dortmund face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Borussia Dortmund welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Signal Iduna Park in Bundesliga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Borussia Dortmund have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Bayer Leverkusen — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Borussia Dortmund have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Borussia Dortmund hold a clear advantage across the 9 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 2 for Bayer Leverkusen and 2 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Bayer Leverkusen — a Borussia Dortmund win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 61% and Bayer Leverkusen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 64% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.27 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.333 / defence 0.877 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.101 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.458. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack rating of 1.333 — their 2.27 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Borussia Dortmund's last 62 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 62.
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 57% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 23%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.77 | Draw 4.89 | Bayer Leverkusen 4.36. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.27 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Dortmund's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Dortmund 50% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 29 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 57% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.27 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.333 / def 0.877 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.101 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Bayer Leverkusen xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Signal Iduna Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund 0 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 29) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 57% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Borussia Dortmund's last 62 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
57%
1.77
20%
4.89
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.68
1.41
Bayer Leverkusen xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
10%
9.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
2%
42.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.41 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 36W 13D 13L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 33W 19D 10L from 62 games, 1.90 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 1.95 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2.29 PPG from their last 31 home games (22W 5D 4L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 15W 12D 4L from their last 31 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.10 scored and 1.32 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 66%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
Borussia Dortmund (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 36W 13D 13L in their last 62 games (1.95 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 33W 19D 10L in their last 62 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.29 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Feb 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen won Borussia Dortmund 2-5 Bayer Leverkusen.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
3
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 55%, Bayer Leverkusen 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Borussia Dortmund and 61% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 71% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 90% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bayer Leverkusen defy the odds to beat Borussia Dortmund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Borussia Dortmund 0-1 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.27 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.41 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Dortmund fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.33 / defence 0.88 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.10 / defence 0.99, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 57% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 23%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Bayer Leverkusen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 64%, Bayer Leverkusen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.95 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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