Bayern München 0-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayern München (81%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bayern München face Werder Bremen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bayern München welcome Werder Bremen to Fußball Arena München in Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 21 January 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bayern München stand at 9W 0D 1L — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bayern München's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 4.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Werder Bremen — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Bayern München: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Werder Bremen, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Bayern München 4–0 Werder Bremen — a Bayern München win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bayern München and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Bayern München in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 74% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 72% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayern München 60% and Werder Bremen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayern München 74% | Werder Bremen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayern München 3.10 xG and Werder Bremen 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayern München attack 1.639 / defence 0.702 | Werder Bremen attack 0.942 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.808 / away 1.300. Bayern München carry an above-average attack rating of 1.639 — their 3.10 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bayern München have a tight defence (rating 0.702), which is pulling Werder Bremen's projected output down. Data: built from Bayern München's last 50 games and Werder Bremen's last 51.
Result probabilities: Bayern München 81% | Draw 13% | Werder Bremen 6%. Fair-value odds: Bayern München 1.24 | Draw 7.65 | Werder Bremen 15.85. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (81%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 3.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bayern München's last 10 home games and Werder Bremen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bayern München 40% (last 10 home games) | Werder Bremen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayern München vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Fußball Arena München • Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayern München 81% | Draw 13% | Werder Bremen 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Bayern München 3.10 / Werder Bremen 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bayern München attack 1.639 / def 0.702 | Werder Bremen attack 0.942 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.808 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.10
Bayern München xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Werder Bremen xG
56%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bayern München vs Werder Bremen FAQs
What time does Bayern München vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Bayern München vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Fußball Arena München.
What was the final score in Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Bayern München 0 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is Bayern München vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Fußball Arena München.
What competition is Bayern München vs Werder Bremen part of?
Bayern München vs Werder Bremen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Bayern München a 81% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 6% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bayern München and Werder Bremen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bayern München vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bayern München's attack at 1.64x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 3.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Bayern München's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bayern München's last 50 games and Werder Bremen's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.2%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
81%
1.24
13%
7.65
6%
15.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.10
Bayern München xG
Total xG
3.96
0.86
Werder Bremen xG
1.24
81%
Home win
7.65
13%
Draw
15.85
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
4%
22.26
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bayern München vs Werder Bremen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Bayern München and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 3.10 expected goals for Bayern München and 0.86 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayern München come into this having played 50 games, going 34W 10D 6L for 2.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Werder Bremen sit at 1.04 PPG from 50 outings (14W 10D 26L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bayern München's home form reads 17W 6D 1L across their last 24 home games, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Werder Bremen have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 24 away games (5W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayern München are averaging 2.88 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.46 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 64%.
Defensively: Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayern München
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
Bayern München (Home) vs Werder Bremen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bayern München
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Bayern München vs Werder Bremen Form FAQs
What form are Bayern München and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Bayern München have gone 34W 10D 6L in their last 50 games (2.24 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 14W 10D 26L in their last 50 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayern München at home or Werder Bremen away?
Bayern München's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayern München at home: 2.38 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Bayern München or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2020. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bayern München have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Nov 2022, when Bayern München won Bayern München 6-1 Werder Bremen.
Bayern München's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bayern München
1
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Bayern München vs Werder Bremen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Werder Bremen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bayern München have won 8, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bayern München and Werder Bremen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Werder Bremen 0-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between Bayern München and Werder Bremen?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 79% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayern München 54%, Werder Bremen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Bayern München and 58% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayern München home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bayern München vs Werder Bremen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bayern München and Werder Bremen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bayern München's games and 67% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bayern München and Werder Bremen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Bayern München's matches and 58% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Bayern München and Werder Bremen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Bayern München's recent matches and 54% of Werder Bremen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat Bayern München 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Bayern München 0-1 at Fußball Arena München, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 3.10 xG and Werder Bremen 0.86 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bayern München fell 3.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.64 / defence 0.70 against Werder Bremen attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayern München 81% | Draw 13% | Werder Bremen 6%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 81%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 6% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 74%, Werder Bremen 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayern München's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Werder Bremen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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