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Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 6-3 hammering of VfL Wolfsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat VfL Wolfsburg 6-3 at BayArena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.19 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 0.94 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 6-3 for 9 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.08 / defence 0.78 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.87 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 66% | Draw 19% | VfL Wolfsburg 15%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 59%, VfL Wolfsburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights