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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at BayArena, Regular Season - 34, as Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.75 xG and Hamburger SV 1.08 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.33 / defence 0.92 against Hamburger SV attack 0.79 / defence 1.20, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 72% | Draw 15% | Hamburger SV 12%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 61%, Hamburger SV 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights