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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at BayArena, Regular Season - 24, as Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.25 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.05 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.15 / defence 0.84 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 64% | Draw 21% | FSV Mainz 05 16%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 61%, FSV Mainz 05 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights