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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Sat 28 Feb 2026

14:30

Venue

BayArena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bayer Leverkusen Win

64%

Bayer Leverkusen

1.57

21%

Draw

4.80

16%

FSV Mainz 05

6.45

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

9.4%

Home win

1 – 1

8.7%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.25

Bayer Leverkusen xG

Total xG

3.30

1.05

FSV Mainz 05 xG

64%
21%
16%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawFSV Mainz 05

1.57

64%

Home win

4.80

21%

Draw

6.45

16%

Away win

Goals Markets

84%

Over 1.5

1.19

16%

Under 1.5

6.25

64%

Over 2.5

1.56

36%

Under 2.5

2.78

42%

Over 3.5

2.38

58%

Under 3.5

1.72

24%

Over 4.5

4.17

76%

Under 4.5

1.32

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.69

41%

BTTS No

2.44

Clean Sheet

35%

Bayer Leverkusen

2.85

10%

FSV Mainz 05

9.53

Win to Nil

22%

Bayer Leverkusen

4.48

2%

FSV Mainz 05

61.46

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.7 3.9 2.0 0.7 0.2
1 8.3 8.7 4.6 1.6 0.4 0.1
2 9.4 9.8 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.1
3 7.0 7.4 3.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 4.0 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2
5 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.254
λ Away (xG) 1.048
Total xG 3.302
League avg home goals 1.726
League avg away goals 1.391
Bayer Leverkusen attack strength 1.146
Bayer Leverkusen defence strength 0.836
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.901
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 1.140
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 57