Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 65% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bayer Leverkusen face FC Augsburg.

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Full Analysis

BayArena plays host to Bayer Leverkusen versus FC Augsburg in Bundesliga (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

FC Augsburg's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Bayer Leverkusen edge it 5 wins to 3, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Bayer Leverkusen 0–2 FC Augsburg — a FC Augsburg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 65% versus FC Augsburg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 59% | FC Augsburg 56%). Note also that FC Augsburg surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Bayer Leverkusen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.31 xG and FC Augsburg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.296 / defence 0.897 | FC Augsburg attack 0.812 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.449. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack rating of 1.296 — their 2.31 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bayer Leverkusen's last 63 games and FC Augsburg's last 63.

Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 65% | Draw 19% | FC Augsburg 16%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.53 | Draw 5.37 | FC Augsburg 6.29. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bayer Leverkusen 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 50% (last 10 away games).

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