🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Borussia Dortmund defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 at BayArena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.70 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.01 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.32 / defence 0.68 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.01 / defence 0.78, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 53% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 22%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Borussia Dortmund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 64%, Borussia Dortmund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 2.04 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights