Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Bayer Leverkusen welcome Borussia Dortmund to BayArena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen at BayArena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at BayArena.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Bayer Leverkusen) versus 2.10 (Borussia Dortmund). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bayer Leverkusen, 4 for Borussia Dortmund and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 2–4 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 69% and Borussia Dortmund 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 64% | Borussia Dortmund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.70 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.325 / defence 0.678 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.010 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.470. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating of 0.678 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Bayer Leverkusen games / 45 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 53% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 22%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Borussia Dortmund 4.55. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 50% | Borussia Dortmund 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 53% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.70 / Borussia Dortmund 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.325 / def 0.678 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.010 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Borussia Dortmund xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 53% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (8 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 2W | Draws 2 | Borussia Dortmund 4W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.32x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.01
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
2.71
1.01
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
4%
24.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.01 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Bayer Leverkusen have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 26W 14D 5L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 23W 10D 12L from 45 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bayer Leverkusen on 2.04 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 2.04 PPG from 23 outings (14W 5D 4L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 9W 5D 9L from 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 1.36 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 26W 14D 5L in their last 45 games (2.04 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 23W 10D 12L in their last 45 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.04 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bayer Leverkusen
2
Draws
5
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 61%, Borussia Dortmund 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 56% (Borussia Dortmund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 65% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 56% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Borussia Dortmund defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 at BayArena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.70 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.01 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.32 / defence 0.68 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.01 / defence 0.78, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 53% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 22%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Borussia Dortmund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 64%, Borussia Dortmund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 2.04 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.